The majority of the Chinese people are clear that they can only seek solution from development (从发展中解决问题). To suggest that the people’s uprising events in the Middle East and North Africa will soon follow in China is to imply that China inflict the same misrule upon its people as Egypt and Libya. First of all this comparison is unfair and have the mistake of comparing a rotten apple with a juicy orange, and the media preaching this talk is guilty of misleading and misinforming its readers.
For three decades the Chinese government by and large has been sincere in implementing reform and opening to improve the lots of its people. Some three decades ago, devoid of resources, capital and technology; the open door policy had created economic growth, generated jobs, and improved income. In that same period, OEM and contract manufacturing help increased the knowledge and technology stock; a frugal and thrifty people and business had accumulated a large private capital base while the state has built the world’s largest stock of foreign reserves.
To compare China with Egypt is not fair, to say the least. The consensus view is that the Jasmine effect will not take hold in China. A couple of enthusiastic activists had tried to rally the people resulting in a turnout outnumbered by the security forces. Yes the Chinese security apparatus was vigilant. In fact the Chinese government, obsessed with stability has been most vigilant In recent years; well before troubles exploded in the Middle East, Beijing already set up the Office For Maintaining Stability (维稳办) to look into the rising wave of discontent from the ground up. The government apparatus is experienced in dealing with protest with a range of subtle and not-so-subtle tools at its disposal.
It is an expressed national policy to maintain stability above all. (稳定压倒一切). It is DEVELOPMENT, stupid (发展是硬道理) The Chinese people by and large understands that without stability there could not development. Although expectations are not being met fast enough, the majority is rational and realistic about the situation, to rock the boat hard may sink the boat, which brings everyone down with it. To be fair, in spite of the problems of corruption, monopolies and oligopolies that have made the connected few very rich, the common people (老百姓) have enjoyed extra-ordinary upliftment in the last three decades.
Chinese people are proud of the achievements they have attained so far and are willing to work with the state to seek further development to solve present problems (从发展解决问题). Moreover deep in the Chinese psyche lies vivid memories of suffering and a destiny trapped in hardship and poverty in chaotic times; china’s long history of chaos not withstanding, memories from the recent cultural revolution had embedded deep fear among Chinese, it is development, make no mistake about it, not democracy that they care most about. Democracy is desirable, but no guarantee that it will bring prosperity to the Chinese condition; Chinese people are very practical people, they only trust what they can see.
What is different in china is people had bad experience of riots and chaos and they are hopeful of their future; this I suspect is the key reason why the Chinese government is chanting the 8 percent GDP growth target. Rising expectations what motivated the angry youths to go to the street is also the frustration of a trapped life with no hope of seeing good jobs or income growth. In any society when the people are facing prolonged economic hardships ( 民不聊生) as a result of poor or bad governance, the ruling regime’s days are marked. States in the Middle East has a relatively small gainful and productive economy; the state sector employed a significant number of people and large government bureaucracy was built. Some young and talented who had the privilege of education, and some a foreign education return to become elites who will make up the vested class. There has been well meaning people who saw the writing on the wall and tried to promote reforms, such as in Egypt, but this effort succumbed to the weight of those who try to preserve their vested interest.
REAL PRODUCTIVE JOBS
Up to a point, rupture has to come. Even If the ruling regime is defeated by the people’s power, it will take a lot of time and effort to build a real economy. As Daniel Henninger wrote in the Wall Street Journal, “…Egypt’s people will get a credible political system, what they won’t get – now or possibly ever – is an economy able to produce real jobs for their country’s large young population.
Real productive Jobs; both east and west, developed and developing countries alike; are the most serious challenges facing the governments. In the last two decades, apart from the real estate, financial services and the Internet sectors, income has only grown marginally or in the majority of professions and countries. The post baby boomer generations have not seen good prospect of upward mobility from gainful employment. The challenge the whole world is facing is to reorient ate the economic system back to Main Street – the real productive sector, and to put the unrealistic and unreal expectation of prosperity inspired by Wall Street back on the ground. This week while traveling in Europe, I heard murmurings that people should rise against western governments too. Persistently high unemployment blamed on the disappearance of jobs due to globalization must find a new resolution. Intel’s Andy Grove has pleaded passionately to keep jobs at home as a matter of survival.
It is not about keeping jobs at home but have the public relooked at the value and meaning of jobs; who should do what and how much they be paid. The fact is not the lack of jobs; in most countries with high unemployment; there is also a significant immigrant population or foreign labor that help to make the economy run. Malaysia is a good example; estimates put foreign workers to working population as 1 to 3.
TRICKY BALANCING ACT
The post 80′s generation has lower tolerance of hardship and higher expectations. In China, the young working class, especially those averaging 23 years old migrant workers, which numbered some 150 million out of the 230 million workers who worked away from their homes; this dominant younger group could be less patient.
In 2010, a series of strikes and incidents in the factories in southern China broke out. These expressions of discontent were met with a series of wage increases and promise to improve conditions. The so-called jasmine effect has already cast effect in China before the outburst in the Middle East. Judging from the series of events in the last dew weeks, the jasmine effect continues to have its impact in China; it has hastened the implementation of measure to address long outstanding pains such as low cost housing and corruption. The Chinese government moved rapidly to fire more corrupt officials and build low cost housing are all measures embodied with messages to the people that yes we feel your pain.
While the people’s rage in the Middle East and Northern Africa continued to rock the ruling regimes, the parliament in Singapore heard the government’s proposal for a growth dividend to the people. Hong Kong announced similar measures. The timing cannot be better to send the message; the quality of your leadership and their governance determines the citizen’s well being! If a small group of people running the governments in Singapore and Hong Kong can do it, it makes you think why larger countries with more natural endowments and resources are doing worse?
A participant to my lecture in Porto asked me for suggestions on how Portugal gets out of its high debt, high unemployment crisis. I offered no answer except to ask the Portuguese to ask themselves whether they are willing go downsize government, work for less, save more for capital formation, only borrow to finance building of productive capacity and open the economy for foreign participation. I told them 50 years ago, Asian countries were worse than they are now; we had no money, no technology and no market. But for 50 years Asians worked hard for little, the governments were doing their real job; we invite foreign capital and technology to joint venture with our entrepreneurs, we learn fast and work hard and save a lot. Today a middle class society is emerging and China has accumulated the largest foreign reserves in the world. During the financial crisis; ordinary citizens in South Korea donated their own personal gold to the government to replenish their gold reserves; and during the current crisis; governments, unions and chambers of commerce got together to agree not to retrench, but continue to hire with people willing to cut 10-20% of their pay to preserve social harmony.
Societies all need to rethink about our own work ethics, our commitment to community and ask critically how we deploy our valuable resources. Are we practicing or promoting the values that make it possible for all to accept doing more with less and a more compromising, communitarian approach to resolve our common difficult situation. It is not useless to re-read three books: Frederick Hayek’s “ The Fatal Conceit,” Adam Smith’s “ The Wealth of Nations” and Samuel Smiles, “ Self Help.”
Foong Wai Fong -On Board KLM flight kl0809 Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur March 11 2011.
